Week 13 in the NFL brought good results for picks and predictions against the spread thanks to many big favorites who took care of business in their games. Now is the time to translate that success with more complicated lines to navigate through in Week 14.
Once again, there are four teams in a goodbye, creating another list of 14 contests. There is the same mix of medium and large spreads, but there are also some additional very small number traps.
As the division’s competition heats up in December and there is more in line regarding the NFL playoff image, things will get tougher. Here’s how Sporting News fearlessly predicts the next set of matchups:
(Game odds courtesy of FanDuel)
NFL POWER RATINGS:
Chiefs, Steelers, Dolphins climb; 49ers, Ravens, Vikings fade in week 14
NFL Picks vs. Spread for Week 13
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Game of the week: Rams vs. Cardinals (-2.5, 51.5 o / u)
Monday 8:15 pm ET, ESPN
The Rams are fine when Matthew Stafford is protected and can stay balanced. But the defensive pressure from the Cardinals got to him last time, and the script for the game may not work in his favor. The Cardinals’ offense is full throttle and versatile with Kyler Murray healthy and he should have all his weapons working well for him, too. The Rams will fare better than in Game 1, but Arizona will build on a big, noisy home lead for a primetime victory.
Choose: The Cardinals win 27-24 and cover the spread.
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Midweek game: Steelers vs. Vikings (-3, 44.5 o / u)
Thursday 8:20 pm ET, Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime Video
The Steelers offense is putting more pieces together with Najee Harris supported much better by Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game. The Vikings’ ground defense has collapsed and they are in disarray downfield in the secondary. His offense will also be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. Minnesota has become a habit of losing close games that it has
Choose: The Steelers win 23-20.
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Block of the week: Packers (-12.5, 44 o / u) over Bears
Sunday 8:20 pm ET, NBC
This is another lopsided division showdown for Sunday night. Green Bay is coming off a break, well rested and back in full force offensively with more defensive reinforcements on the way. Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears and won’t let them sniff out anything close to a surprise at Lambeau Field. If it’s Andy Dalton making another prime-time outing for Chicago, well, everyone knows what it will be like.
Choose: Packers win 38-17 and cover the spread.
- Madness of the week: Jets (+6, 43.5 o / u) over Saints
Sunday 1 pm ET, CBS
The Jets got nervous and stayed with the Eagles for a while. If Alvin Kamara returns for New Orleans, their weak running defense will be pressured again, but otherwise, they will have a break with a limited offense from the Saints. New York is seeing Zach Wilson play better, and Elijah Moore and the rest of the Jets’ wide receivers can give a shaky secondary some head-on problems. This outdoor game falls in the favor of the home team as Robert Saleh’s defense makes enough plays to steal a fourth win.
Choose: The Jets win 20-17.
- Raiders at Chiefs (-9.5, 49 o / u)
Sunday 1 pm ET, CBS
The Chiefs are about to cut through the AFC West again and the Raiders, like the first time and the Broncos last week, will be outmatched by the division powerhouse for a long time. Kansas City hasn’t played a great offense at home lately, but the defense has brought it all together and this should be an improvement game for Patrick Mahomes and the running game. Derek Carr is impossible to trust in matches of this magnitude.
Choose: Bosses win 33-20 and cover the spread.
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Jaguars on Titans (-9.5, 44.5 o / u)
Sunday 1 pm ET, CBS
The Jaguars have become a lifeless mass under Urban Meyer, posing as a professional team with terrible training and terrible staff misuse. Somehow they have failed to land an elite quarterback prospect in Trevor Lawrence and the defensive flashes they have displayed are few and far between. Mike Vrabel will deliver his NFL coaching muscle after a break with a creative and effective game plan in every way.
Choose: The Titans win 30-16 and cover the spread.
- Ravens at Browns (-2.5, 42.5 o / u)
Sunday 1 pm ET, CBS
Lamar Jackson is going through a rough patch. Baker Mayfield has been in one all season. Something has to give here as both teams will try to run often to win the game and help their QB be more efficient. Jackson’s legs are still a big factor and can make a big difference in this kind of pent up defensive fight. The Ravens blitz comes to Mayfield to contain the Browns offense.
Choose: The crows win 23-20.
- Falcons in Panthers (-3, 43.5 o / u)
Sunday 1 pm ET, Fox
The Falcons are doing their best on offense with Matt Ryan, as Calvin Ridley has been a huge absentee all season. Cordarrelle Patterson’s reveal in the backfield helps them here, as well as Ryan’s remaining main targets Russell Gage and Kyle Pitts, who stay warm against a weakened secondary. The Panthers fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady for a spark, when in fact he’s the only one they had when Christian McCaffrey was healthy. Atlanta leads him to separate from Carolina.
Choose: Falcons win 20-17.
- Cowboys (-4.5, 49.5 o / u) on the Washington soccer team
Sunday 1 pm ET, CBS
The Cowboys have been on a roller coaster of late as they try to find their elite offense with Dak Prescott again, where explosive passing and power running are in harmony. His defense, however, enjoyed a resurgence on the road against the Saints in Week 13 and Washington has limited ways of attacking them beyond Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin for Taylor Heinicke.
Choose: Cowboys win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Seahawks (-7.5, 42.5 o / u) at Texans
Sunday 1 pm ET, Fox
The Seahawks found their life with Russell Wilson against the 49ers at home. The Texans saw their severe lack of talent cost them to the point of being shut out by the Colts. The spirit they once had with David Culley could be completely broken. Seattle’s running game isn’t there yet, but the committee may be on track to push Wilson further here. Defense has also been underrated throughout the season.
Choose: The Seahawks win 27-10 and cover the spread.
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Lions in Broncos (-8, 42 o / u)
Sunday 4:05 ET, Fox
The Lions earned their home win against the Vikings and will again lose low-scoring close games. The Broncos defense can make life difficult for Jared Goff with his passing offense and secondary, while also containing the running game. The Broncos will be successful hitting the ball over the Lions and they’ll get enough of Teddy Bridgewater in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
Choose: The Broncos win 20-13 but can’t make up the difference.
- Giants at Chargers (-10.5, 45.5 o / u)
Sunday 4:05 pm ET, Fox
The Giants have been in the tank offensively and it doesn’t matter who calls them or makes plays. The Chargers have ultra-fast players everywhere to keep helping Justin Herbert’s electric arm. The key for them is avoiding turnovers and hoping the defense continues to help them with the takeaway. Herbert will have patience against another zone defense with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler as the main target as Brandon Staley’s team gets closer and closer to the AFC playoffs.
Choose: Chargers win 31-17 and cover the spread.
- 49ers (-1, 47.5 o / u) at Bengals
Sunday 4:25 pm ET, CBS
The 49ers lost on the road to the Seahawks last week, but they’ve been strong when they traveled to the Eastern time zone with Kyle Shanahan and this start time is familiar. The Bengals have few answers to their specific strengths on offense, spreading the ball down the field with George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Joe Burrow will turn this into a shootout with Jimmy Garoppolo, but in the end the 49ers get the few defensive plays necessary to preserve the victory.
Choose: The 49ers win 27-24 and cover the difference.
- Invoices in Buccaneers (-3, 52.5 o / u)
Sunday 4:25 pm ET, CBS
The Bills haven’t been a great road team going south this season, losing to the Titans and Jaguars. The Buccaneers are 5-0 at Tampa Bay, building on their big Super Bowl 55 win there. Tom Brady will exploit the right gaps in the Bills’ defense between Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, while the Bucs will be able to pressure Josh Allen often in a one-dimensional attack. Leonard Fournette’s electric current will later close the door.
Choose: The Buccaneers win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Vinnie Iyer 2023 Picks:
- Week 13 record against the spread: 8-5
- Record of week 13 directly: 9-4
- ATS season: 106-85
- Straight season: 127-65
