Can you believe we’re over the halfway point in the 2023-22 NBA season?
We’re well beyond the small sample sizes phase of the season as those spurts have become trends. Teams like the Grizzlies and Cavaliers have shocked the NBA world, while teams like the Lakers, Hawks and Celtics have not lived up to expectations.
Which teams are overachieving, underachieving or right on track? Take a look and find out below.
(Note: Preseason wins projections are courtesy of Action Network’s over/unders. Current wins projection is courtesy of FiveThirtyEight’s predictions model.)
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1. Phoenix Suns
Record: 36-9
Preseason wins projection: 51-31
Current wins projection: 61-21
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
Coming off of their NBA Finals appearance, it would have been fair to expect this phenomenal play from the Suns. Their balance, depth and continuity on both ends makes them a strong contender to repeat as the West Champions. After a slow 1-3 start, they have rolled off 34 wins in their next 40 games, which has included a franchise-best 18-game win streak.
– Yash Matange (@yashmatange2694)
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 30-19
Preseason wins projection: 54-28
Current wins projection: 51-31
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
If there is any team who can comfortably wait to hit the throttle, it’s the defending champs who after a slow start, are starting to round into form. While they have yet to rip off an extended dominant stretch, they are a sizzling 17-3 in games with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. Antetokounmpo is firmly in the hunt for a third MVP award while Milwaukee looks like perhaps the safest bet of any team to reach the NBA Finals.
– Micah Adams (@MicahAdams13)
3. Golden State Warriors
Record: 34-13
Preseason wins projection: 47-35
Current wins projection: 54-28
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
Even if the Warriors are coming back down to earth a bit after their sizzling start, I’m not sure anyone saw THIS coming from a team who just one year ago looked like Stephen Curry and nothing else while getting box-and-one’d in the Play-In games. Despite hitting a cold stretch, Golden State has emerged as at-worst co-favorites in the Western Conference. Andrew Wiggins is flirting with the All-Star team, Draymond Green is the leading contender for Defensive Player of the Year, Klay Thompson is finally back and Steve Kerr is finding steady contributions from up and down the roster.
– Adams
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 32-17
Preseason wins projection: 41-41
Current wins projection: 52-30
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
From a Play-In loser in 2020 to a Play-In winner and eighth seed in 2023, I think we all expected Memphis to take a leap, but no one expected this. Behind an MVP-level leap from Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are ahead of schedule with respect to becoming a perennial force in the Western Conference.
– Gilbert McGregor (@GMcGregor21)
5. Miami Heat
Record: 30-17
Preseason wins projection: 48-34
Current wins projection: 51-31
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
The Heat have only played 14 games with their Big 3 of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry and yet, they still hold a tie for the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner Tyler Herro has played a huge role in Miami maintaining success despite its constant absences to key players, holding the team together like superglue as they finally start to get healthy.
– Kyle Irving (@KyleIrv_)
6. Brooklyn Nets
Record: 29-17
Preseason wins projection: 56-26
Current wins projection: 50-32
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
The Nets are exactly where they were expected to be, owning the best record in the East through the midway point of the season. They’ll face a tough test without star forward Kevin Durant, who is expected to miss an “extended period of time” due to a knee injury, but James Harden has really overcome a slow start to the season and Kyrie Irving is back as a part-time player, so Brooklyn should fair just fine.
– Irving
7. Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 27-19
Preseason wins projection: 50-32
Current wins projection: 49-33
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
Sure, Ben Simmons has his faults, but you’d rather have Simmons on your team, than not. Despite what the Twitterverse would have you believe, Simmons is still a very, very good player and to have played 45 games without him so far, have your next best player in Tobias Harris be kind of inconsistent, and to still be in striking range of a top-four seeding in the East is amazing. Joel Embiid has been superhuman, but imagine how much easier his job would be if he had an All-Star sidekick?
– Nick Metallinos (@NickMetallinos)
8. Chicago Bulls
Record: 28-17
Preseason wins projection: 42-40
Current wins projection: 46-36
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
Based on their preseason expectations after acquiring DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso – moves that didn’t exactly scream No. 1 team in the East – the Bulls are more than overachieving. Injuries and absences have somewhat slowed them down on the defensive end, but when healthy, they’ve done enough to prove their skeptics wrong. This team is for real.
– Benyam Kidane (@BenyamKidane)
9. Utah Jazz
Record: 30-17
Preseason wins projection: 51-31
Current wins projection: 53-29
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
The Jazz are what they are: a very good regular season team that has failed to deliver in the playoffs. After entering the playoffs last season with the best record in the NBA, they fizzled out in the second round. They’ve had three second-round exits and two first-round exits in the last five seasons. The Jazz are on track to have another good regular season, but for them in particular, it’s what they do in the playoffs that define whether they’re underachieving or overachieving.
–Metallinos
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 28-19
Preseason wins projection: 27-55
Current wins projection: 46-36
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
I mean, c’mon. Did any of us really expect Cleveland to be this good? In the three seasons prior to 2023-22, it went just 60-159 since LeBron James’ departure. Sure, the Cavaliers had some good pieces and drafting Evan Mobley third overall helps because he’s been really, really good so far. Jarrett Allen has been huge for them, so has Darius Garland. They’re currently fifth in the East and even if they fall a little, they’re still way ahead of where most people thought they’d be this season.
– Metallinos
11. Charlotte Hornets
Record: 26-21
Preseason wins projection: 37-45
Current wins projection: 45-37
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
After missing out on the playoffs last season via the Play-In tournament, the Hornets have made incremental growth this season behind the natural development of LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, with their two young stars propelling them to the third-best offense in the league. They’re right on track to get their first taste of postseason action.
– Kidane
12. Dallas Mavericks
Record: 27-20
Preseason wins projection: 48-34
Current wins projection: 48-34
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
The knee-jerk reaction is to say that Dallas is underachieving. Luka Doncic entered the season as a betting favorite to win the MVP award and yet can’t shake free from a sluggish and inefficient start to his season made worse by the fact that he showed up out of shape. And yet for all the handwriting about Doncic’s play and less-than-inspiring supporting cast, the Mavericks are somehow still 5th in the Western Conference with a grind-it-out pace and stifling defense that’s emerged as one of the best in the entire league. If Doncic turns it around, watch out for a second-half surge from Jason Kidd’s team.
– Adams
13. Denver Nuggets
Record: 24-21
Preseason wins projection: 47-35
Current wins projection: 46-36
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
Considering that the Nuggets have missed two players of their core Big 3 – Jamal Murray and Micahel Porter Jr. – for a majority of the season, Denver has overachieved with their above .500 record at the halfway mark of the season. Obviously, reigning Nikola Jokic has been a huge reason for their play. Just take a look at the team’s net rating based on his presence on the floor (9.7) versus off it (-12.5).
– Matange
14. Toronto Raptors
Record: 22-22
Preseason wins projection: 35-47
Current wins projection: 43-39
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
I don’t think many people expected the Raptors to be fighting for a playoff spot this season but over the midway point, they’re right in the mix. Fred VanVleet has filled Kyle Lowry’s shoes in a big way as the team’s catalyst and leader, putting up All-Star caliber numbers. Rookie Scottie Barnes has exceeded expectations and Pascal Siakam is really starting to find his groove, looking like the player who started in the All-Star Game back in 2020.
– Irving
15. Boston Celtics
Record: 24-24
Preseason wins projection: 46-36
Current wins projection: 43-39
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Underachieving
I would make the case that aside from the Lakers and Hawks, the Celtics are the third-most underachieving team in the NBA this season. Sitting at .500 through the midway point of the season, Boston is just sitting inside the Play-In Tournament picture despite undeniably improving its roster talent from a season ago. Anything short of qualifying for the actual playoffs would be a massive disappointment for a team that has two of the best young players in the NBA in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
– Irving
16. Los Angeles Lakers
Record: 23-24
Preseason wins projection: 52-30
Current wins projection: 37-45
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Underachieving
Hands down the most disappointing team in the NBA. All of the preseason concerns – age, lack of shooting, defensive shortcomings – have come to fruition. As constituted right now, the Lakers look like anything but a championship contender and in a normal year in the West, would likely be on the outside looking in just to make the playoffs. While LeBron continues to defy all logic with his stellar play, nothing else has gone according to plan for a team searching desperately for answers. The Lakers look nothing like the team that won it all in the bubble back in 2020.
– Adams
17. Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 23-23
Preseason wins projection: 35-47
Current wins projection: 42-40
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
Two No.1 picks and a No. 2 pick should be an elite Big 3 in the NBA and this season the Timberwolves are starting to show flashes of becoming the team they should be. Led by Karl-Anthony Towns, they should be a playoff team, and while at times they’ve struggled for consistency, the signs are encouraging enough.
– Kidane
18. LA Clippers
Record: 23-25
Preseason wins projection: 45-37
Current wins projection: 39-43
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
This season was going to be hard enough without Kawhi Leonard, but multiple extended absences from Paul George, too? That’s a lot to overcome. The Clippers are built to complement their two stars, so kudos to Ty Lue for keeping them around .500 during what could be categorized as a throwaway season.
– McGregor
19. New York Knicks
Record: 23-24
Preseason wins projection: 41-41
Current wins projection: 37-45
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
Where to even begin with the Knicks? It feels like they’ve perpetually underachieved in the last two decades except for the two seasons they overachieved (2012-13, 2020-21). Last season the Knicks had the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. This season, they’re 16th. Julius Randle has not been the same player he was last season. Evan Fournier has been, well, meh. Kemba has had his struggles. If we base expectations off last year’s season then the Knicks are definitely underachieving.
If you’re a Knicks fan that’s followed the team for a long, long, time, you might argue they are right on track for another Knicks season. I recognize the jig when I see it.
– Metallinos
20. Washington Wizards
Record: 23-24
Preseason wins projection: 34-48
Current wins projection: 39-43
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
Did anyone really see the Wizards even being a .500 team this season? After their blistering start to the season, they’ve come crashing down to earth in a way, but Kyle Kuzma, Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have seamlessly fit in alongside Bradley Beal to make the Wizards a genuine playoff team.
– Kidane
21. Atlanta Hawks
Record: 21-25
Preseason wins projection: 46-36
Current wins projection: 41-41
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Underachieving
After their Cinderella run in the 2023 playoffs, the expectations were high for the Hawks this season and in my opinion, rightfully so. Purely on their performances in the first half of the season, they have certainly disappointed with their 20-25 record through their first 45 games. Defense has been a big issue as they rank in the bottom tier of the league with a rating upwards of 113. Having said that, I do expect this team to bounce back given the talent on their roster.
– Matange
22. Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 20-26
Preseason wins projection: 44-38
Current wins projection: 37-45
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Underachieving
Sure, the team has missed Damian Lillard plenty this season. The 6-foot-2 guard hasn’t played a single game in 2023 and missed six before then but the team wasn’t doing much even with him, owning a 12-17 record in games he has played. The play of young guard Anfernee Simons has been encouraging for the franchise, however, provided the talent on their squad, they have certainly underachieved with their sub .500 record. It’s probably time for a reset in Portland.
– Matange
23. Indiana Pacers
Record: 17-30
Preseason wins projection: 42-40
Current wins projection: 36-46
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Underachieving
Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, Chris Duarte, Justin Holiday and TJ McConnell. These are the seven players averaging the most minutes for the Pacers and yet, the only team with a worse record than them in the Conference are the rebuilding franchises in Detroit and Orlando. Their biggest weakness in the first part of the season has been their play in the clutch, registering a league-worst 6-20 record through the first part of the season.
– Matange
24. Sacramento Kings
Record: 18-30
Preseason wins projection: 36-46
Current wins projection: 29-53
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Underachieving
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Kings are a mess. Inline to miss the playoffs for the 16th (!!) consecutive season, it should be time to shake things up in Sacramento with a big move at the trade deadline (my suggestion: start building around Tyrese Haliburton). They are just 2.5 games back from the Play-In Tournament, but there is nothing about this roster’s current construction that makes me believe they will achieve that.
– Irving
25. San Antonio Spurs
Record: 18-29
Preseason wins projection: 28-54
Current wins projection: 33-49
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Overachieving
I’m not sure anyone knew what to make of the Spurs this year but they’ve fallen in line behind a breakout season from Dejounte Murray, who is averaging 19.3 points, 8.9 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game. San Antonio is rebuilding and, at the moment, a little oddly constructed, but it’s winning more than most expected them to and staying in the Play-In picture past the season’s midway point.
– McGregor
26. New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 17-28
Preseason wins projection: 38-44
Current wins projection: 34-48
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
This might raise some eyebrows, but rookie head coach Willie Green and the Pelicans have made a good impression on me, posting a 14-12 since an abysmal 3-16 start to the season. Brandon Ingram continues to blossom, they’ve found a diamond in rookie Herb Jones and if – this is a big if – they get Zion Williamson back in time to reincorporate him into the system, the Pelicans will be a sneaky Play-In team.
– McGregor
27. Houston Rockets
Record: 14-33
Preseason wins projection: 27-55
Current wins projection: 24-58
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
To say the West’s last-place team is right on track isn’t meant as disrespect, it’s more to say that this season isn’t about results in the form of wins and losses. Led by No. 2 pick Jalen Green, Houston has four rookies selected in the first round – three of the four are averaging at least 15 minutes per game, which is exactly what a development year for a rebuilding team should look like.
– McGregor
28. Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 14-32
Preseason wins projection: 23-59
Current wins projection: 23-59
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
Kind of like Gil just said for the Rockets above, the Thunder’s season was never going to be about wins and losses. This season is all about developing their young talent and so far, the future looks bright with a backcourt of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Oklahoma City is right on track for where they want to be – which is a team that will have a great chance at getting the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.
– Irving
29. Detroit Pistons
Record: 11-35
Preseason wins projection: 24-58
Current wins projection: 20-62
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
The Pistons probably would have liked to be more competitive after drafting Cade Cunningham with the first overall pick, but patience is key. Detroit will have a chance to gain some assets at the trade deadline and are on pace to get another top pick to pair with Cunningham and Saddiq Bey.
– Irving
30. Orlando Magic
Record: 9-39
Preseason wins projection: 22-60
Current wins projection: 19-63
Overachieving, underachieving or right on track: Right on track
In a similar light as the youthful teams above, the Magic are also right on track to gain another top pick in the upcoming draft. Even though Jalen Suggs hasn’t had the rookie campaign most expected, Franz Wagner has been a gem, Cole Anthony is having a breakout season and they have two options in a center of the future in Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba.
– Irving
